THG 2018 Annual Report

a change in the data represents credible actionable information or an anomaly. Such an assessment requires considerable judgment. Even if a change is determined to be apparent, it is not always possible to determine the extent of the change. As a result, there can be a time lag between the emergence of a change and a determination that the change should be partially or fully reflected in the carried loss reserves. In general, changes are made more quickly to reserves for more mature accident years and less volatile classes of business. Reserving Process Uncertainties As stated above, numerous factors (both internal and external) contribute to the inherent uncertainty in the process of establishing loss reserves, including changes in the rate of inflation for goods and services related to insured damages (e.g., medical care, home repairs, etc.), changes in the judicial interpretation of policy provisions, and settlement obligations, changes in the general attitude of juries in determining damage awards, legislative actions, such as expanding liability, coverage mandates or expanding or suspending statutes of limitations which otherwise limit the times within which claims can be made, changes in the extent of insured injuries, changes in the trend of expected frequency and/or severity of claims, changes in our book of business (e.g., change in mix due to new product offerings, new geographic areas, etc.), changes in our underwriting practices, and changes in claim handling procedures and/or systems. Regarding our indirect business from voluntary and involuntary pools, we are provided loss estimates by managers of each pool. We adopt reserve estimates for the pools that consider this information and other facts. In addition, we must consider the uncertain effects of emerging or potential claims and coverage issues that arise as legal, judicial, social conditions, political risks, and economic conditions change. For example, claims which we consider closed may be re-opened as additional damages surface or new liability or damage theories are presented. Also, historically we have observed more frequent and KLJKHU VHYHULW\ LQ ZRUNHUV¶ FRPSHQVDWLRQ ERGLO\ LQMXU\ DQG RWKHU OLDELOLW\ FODLPV DQG PRUH FUHGLW UHODWHG ORVVHV IRU H[DPS le, in our surety business) during periods of economic uncertainty or high unemployment. These and other issues could have a negative effect on our loss reserves by either extending coverage beyond the original underwriting intent or by increasing the number or size of claims. As part of our loss reserving analysis, we consider the various factors that contribute to the uncertainty in the loss reserving process. Those factors that could materially affect our loss reserve estimates include loss development patterns and loss cost trends, reporting lags, rate and exposure level changes, the effects of changes in coverage and policy limits, business mix shifts, the effects of regulatory and legislative developments, economic circumstances, the effects of changes in judicial interpretations, the effects of emerging claims and coverage issues and the effects of changes in claim handling and claim reserving practices. In making estimates of reserves, however, we do not necessarily make an explicit assumption for each of these factors. Moreover, all estimation methods do not utilize the same assumptions and typically no single method is determinative in the reserve analysis for a line of business and coverage. Consequently, changes in our loss reserve estimates generally are not the result of changes in any one assumption. Instead, the variability will be affected by the interplay of changes in numerous assumptions, many of which are implicit to the approaches used. For each line of business and coverage, we regularly adjust the assumptions and methods used in the estimation of loss reserves in response to our actual loss experience, as well as our judgments regarding changes in trends and/or emerging patterns. In those instances where we primarily utilize analyses of historical patterns of the development of paid and reported losses, this may be reflected, for example, in the selection of revised loss development factors. In longer-tailed classes of business and for which loss experience is less predictable due to potential changes in judicial interpretations, potential legislative actions, the cost of litigation or determining liability and the ultimate loss, inflation, potential claims and other issues, this may be reflected in a judgmental change in our estimate of ultimate losses for particular accident years. Most of the insurance policies we have written over ma Q\ \HDUV DUH ZULWWHQ RQ DQ ³RFFXUUHQFH´ basis, which means we insure specified acts or events which occurred during the covered period, even if claims first arise from such events many years later. For example, the industry incurred significant losses as a result of claims arising from asbestos and environmental damage which occurred decades ago and was not known at such time, and in many cases policy limits were available for each year during which such occurrence policies were in place. The future impact of the various factors that contribute to the uncertainty in the loss reserving process is impossible to predict. There is potential for significant variation in the development of loss reserves, particularly for long-tailed classes of business and classes of business that are more vulnerable to economic or political risks. Reserving Process for Catastrophe Events The estimation of claims and claims expense reserves for catastrophes also comprises estimates of losses from reported claims and IBNR, primarily for damage to property. In general, our estimates for catastrophe reserves are determined on an event basis by considering various sources of available information, including specific loss estimates reported to us based on claim adjuster inspections, overall industry loss estimates, and our internal data regarding exposures related to the geographical location of the event. However, depending on the nature of the catastrophe, the estimation process can be further complicated by other impediments. For example, for hurricanes and other severe wind storms, complications often include the inability of insureds to promptly report losses, delays in the ability of claims adjusting staff to inspect losses, difficulties in determining whether losses are covered by our homeowners policy (generally for damage caused by wind or wind driven rain) or are specifically excluded from coverage caused by flood, and challenges in estimating additional living expenses, assessing the impact of demand surge, exposure to mold damage, and the effects of numerous other considerations. Another example is the complication of estimating the cost of business interruption coverage on commercial lines 50 THE HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP | 2018 ANNUAL REPORT