NYCB 2017 Annual Report

77 As of December 31, 2017, the impact of a 100-basis point decline in market interest rates would have increased our projected prepayment rates for multi-family and CRE loans by a constant prepayment rate of 14.39% per annum. Conversely, the impact of a 100-basis point increase in market interest rates would have decreased our projected prepayment rates for multi-family and CRE loans by a constant prepayment rate of 6.03% per annum. Certain shortcomings are inherent in the method of analysis presented in the preceding Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis. For example, although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they may react in different degrees to changes in market interest rates. The interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate in advance of the market, while interest rates on other types may lag behind changes in market interest rates. Additionally, certain assets, such as adjustable-rate loans, have features that restrict changes in interest rates both on a short-term basis and over the life of the asset. Furthermore, in the event of a change in interest rates, prepayment and early withdrawal levels would likely deviate from those assumed in calculating the table. Also, the ability of some borrowers to repay their adjustable-rate loans may be adversely impacted by an increase in market interest rates. Interest rate sensitivity is also monitored through the use of a model that generates estimates of the change in our net portfolio value (“NPV”) over a range of interest rate scenarios. NPV is defined as the net present value of expected cash flows from assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet contracts. The NPV ratio, under any interest rate scenario, is defined as the NPV in that scenario divided by the market value of assets in the same scenario. The model assumes estimated loan prepayment rates, reinvestment rates, and deposit decay rates similar to those utilized in formulating the preceding Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis. The following table sets forth our NPV at December 31, 2017, based on the information and assumptions in effect at that date, and assuming the changes in interest rates noted: ( dollars in thousands ) Change in Interest Rates (in basis points) (1) Market Value of Assets Market Value of Liabilities Net Portfolio Value Net Change Portfolio Market Value Projected % Change to Base -- $49,590,202 $42,154,288 $7,435,914 $ -- -- % +100 48,897,628 41,901,656 6,995,972 (439,942) (5.92) +200 48,172,944 41,666,960 6,505,984 (929,930) (12.51) (1) The impact of 100- and 200-basis point reductions in interest rates is not presented in view of the current level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates. The net changes in NPV presented in the preceding table are within the limits approved by the Boards of Directors of the Company and the Banks. As with the Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis, certain shortcomings are inherent in the methodology used in the preceding interest rate risk measurements. Modeling changes in NPV requires that certain assumptions be made which may or may not reflect the manner in which actual yields and costs respond to changes in market interest rates. In this regard, the NPV Analysis presented above assumes that the composition of our interest rate sensitive assets and liabilities existing at the beginning of a period remains constant over the period being measured, and also assumes that a particular change in interest rates is reflected uniformly across the yield curve, regardless of the duration to maturity or repricing of specific assets and liabilities. Furthermore, the model does not take into account the benefit of any strategic actions we may take to further reduce our exposure to interest rate risk. Accordingly, while the NPV Analysis provides an indication of our interest rate risk exposure at a particular point in time, such measurements are not intended to, and do not, provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in market interest rates on our net interest income, and may very well differ from actual results. We also utilize an internal net interest income simulation to manage our sensitivity to interest rate risk. The simulation incorporates various market-based assumptions regarding the impact of changing interest rates on future levels of our financial assets and liabilities. The assumptions used in the net interest income simulation are inherently uncertain. Actual results may differ significantly from those presented in the following table, due to the frequency, timing, and magnitude of changes in interest rates; changes in spreads between maturity and repricing categories; and prepayments, among other factors, coupled with any actions taken to counter the effects of any such changes. Based on the information and assumptions in effect at December 31, 2017, the following table reflects the estimated percentage change in future net interest income for the next twelve months, assuming the changes in interest rates noted: