Over the course of the year, we generated a +6.0% economic return, which demonstrates the efficacy of our diversified housing finance model, as well as our disciplined portfolio and risk management. In light of the volatile environment, we continued to proactively manage our leverage profile throughout the year, in turn reducing our economic leverage from 6.3x at the end of the 2022 to 5.7x at the end of 2023. A part of the reduced leverage is driven by further diversification into our Residential Credit and MSR businesses, which are less levered than Agency MBS. Of note, the combined capital allocation to the two businesses increased by five percentage points to 38% at the end of 2023. Turning to the Agency MBS portfolio, our aggregate portfolio declined modestly, falling from $72.9 billion in assets at the end of 2022 to $65.7 billion at the end of 2023. The lower portfolio balance is largely driven by asset sales throughout the year to accommodate the shift in capital allocation, as well as a somewhat lower leverage in the strategy as interest rate markets and mortgage spreads remained very volatile throughout most of the year. In addition to somewhat lower aggregate holdings, we focused on shifting the coupon distribution higher throughout the year, bringing the share of 5.0% coupons or higher to 48%, up 17 percentage points from the 2022 year-end levels. In addition, we rotated out of “to be announced” (“TBA”) security holdings, in turn reducing our holdings from $10.6 billion at the end of 2022 to ($0.6) billion at the end of 2023. This reduction was driven by the combination of reduced advantageous financing of TBA securities relative to specified pool ownership and the desire to add prepayment protection in higher coupon purchases. Finally, given attractive relative value opportunities with respect to Agency MBS, we increased our portfolio of Agency CMBS to $3.5 billion market value, as the asset class offered an attractive stable cash flow in volatile interest rate markets. The residential credit sector benefited from the strong economic environment and the resilience of the housing market, enabling us to continue to achieve progress in building out the business. Our Residential Credit portfolio ended the year at $5.7 billion market value, having grown 14% year over year, and representing 20% of the firm’s capital. The business growth continued to be driven by our residential whole loan acquisition strategy, through which our Residential Credit business acquired $4.7 billion in loans, with a vast majority coming through our correspondent channel, which allows us to control all aspects of the loan making process, including asset selection, counterparties and loss mitigation. Finally, we also continued to grow our MSR portfolio, further increasing assets through purchases predominantly of lowcoupon bulk MSR packages, in turn growing the portfolio by 50% throughout 2023, to $2.7 billion market value. Similar to 2022, bulk trading activity of MSR packages remained at historically elevated levels as mortgage originators looked to monetize MSR holdings to offset low profit margins in their mortgage origination businesses. Meanwhile, demand for MSR also remained strong, as a broad investor base sought MSR as purely financial investments or to acquire escrow deposits and customers that can later be refinanced. We opportunistically bought MSR packages as a strategic partner to originators given our complementary business strategy as a financial investor. Our MSR portfolio continued to consist predominantly of low coupon, high quality conventional MSR, which at the weighted average coupon of 3.06% at the end of 2023, remained far from having a refinancing incentive considering prevailing mortgage rates. Economic leverage is a non-GAAP financial measure. Refer to the “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section for additional information, including reconciliations to its most directly comparable GAAP results. Economic Environment U.S. real economic growth accelerated in 2023, with U.S. gross domestic product (“GDP”) rising 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, above the 1.9% recorded for 2022. Economic activity continued to strengthen throughout the year, led by sizeable increases in consumption. Consumer balance sheets remained healthy and benefited from further income growth, leading retail sales data to notably increase in the fourth quarter. Increased government spending spread across state, local and federal levels, as well as higher exports, also boosted the GDP. Meanwhile, fixed business investment was more muted throughout the year, while residential housing started to move sideways and home sales continued to fall in light of higher mortgage rates. Heading into 2024, recession risks appear relatively low given the upbeat picture of consumer and business spending, although the impact of the Fed’s monetary policy tightening continues to flow through to the real economy and credit conditions have tightened. Meanwhile, the supply and demand for labor moved into better balance by the end of 2023. The unemployment rate ended the year at 3.7%, increasing 0.2 percentage points from the historic low of 3.5% reported in December 2022. Total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a slower pace in 2023, totaling 3.1 million added jobs, relative to 4.5 million added jobs seen in 2022. Strong job creation was accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers, as the labor force participation rate increased gradually throughout the year and the employment-to-population ratio rose slightly. At the same time, job openings trended lower, although they remained elevated relative to pre-pandemic averages. As a result of the more balanced labor market, wage growth slowed as the Employment Cost Index wages rose 4.3% over the 12 months ending in December, well below the 5.1% shown by the same metric a year earlier. ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis 50
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